No single currency is traded completely independent of the other in the Forex market and various market conditions can affect currency pairs in different ways. Let’s understand which are our top USD pairs and how you can trade USD setups in this market.
Chris Pulver is a full-time trader and Senior Currency Strategist at Market Traders Institute. Check out Chris’ brand new trading system – Master Flex – which he calls the best thing he’s ever created. Click here to see it in action.
The U.S. dollar is talk of the town these days. It’s been soaring in value for a while now and many currencies tied to the USD are feeling the brunt.
This rally has been a bonanza for many Forex traders. They’ve seen the dollar index rise over 12% this year so far. And there have been multiple trading opportunities to trade the USD pairs for potential gains in the resulting volatility.
In times like these, it pays to revisit the fundamentals and have a sound trading strategy to position yourself to target winning setups.
So, let us understand why and how the US dollar is moving, and what are some of the best currencies to pair with the USD for trade setups.
Here we go…
What’s Behind the USD Moves?
Let’s first understand how the USD is affected by various factors. And to do that, let’s start with answering – why on earth is the dollar appreciating so much these days?
Now, there are many factors that move the dollar. But the simplest answer here would be that the Federal Reserve is trying to fight inflation and to do that it is ramping up rates faster than most global economies in the world.
This might not be obvious at first sight. But think about it this way – You’re holding wealth and you want to compound it. And more so now with the ongoing volatility and uncertain global environment.
So, many investors are now starting to park their wealth in the U.S. and they’re flocking to invest in the U.S. Government bonds as they’re offering a better return on investment than most other countries which are battling with slowdown concerns.
The 2-year U.S. government bond, for example, would have fetched around 0.7% in January 2022 and today it earns around 4%. So, investors are pouring their money into the U.S. And as this happens, the demand for the dollar balloons and that bumps up its value.
So, that’s one of the key reasons why the dollar has been on a rising spree.
Let’s now see which currencies we’ve found pair well against the USD in this environment.
Best USD pairs
High inflation and ultra-monetary tightening have caused global slowdown, supply chain bottlenecks, and risk aversion among many investors.
All of this favors the USD. This is because the dollar has been known as a safe haven currency and it’s seen as a safe investment during times of economic and political turmoil.
Apart from the USD, the CHF and the JPY are also widely considered as safe havens.
On the other hand, the worst performing currencies in this environment are generally the commodity-linked currencies. These are the AUD, the NZD, and the CAD. This is because the global slowdown weighs on commodity prices which is bad news for the countries that export them.
Here are 3 currency pairs that we consider best to trade against the USD and what tends to move them.
The Euro and the US dollar represent two major economies globally, and as such, this is the most-often traded currency pair. Movements in the exchange rate for this pair are linked to central bank interest rate decisions of these countries and also the non-farm payroll announcements.
The pair is also preferred by many traders because it is highly liquid, comes with low spreads, and because one can place large volumes of trade with it.
The dollar is the most traded currency globally, while the Japanese yen is the most traded currency in the Asian market. Any central bank developments in these nations can spur volatility in this currency pair, which can help one trade the volatility to target potential profits.
This currency pair is also preferred by many as it has one of the tightest spreads in the Forex market which reduces the overall cost of the trade.
This pair is favored by day traders, who aim to take advantage of price fluctuations by trading in and out of the market at a quick pace. And for this reason, it is also considered one of the best forex pairs for swing trading.
The above pairs are also called “Majors” as these are generally the most popular type of currency pairs to trade in the Forex. The majors always have the U.S. dollar as one of the currencies and are generally the most liquid pairs, i.e. they provide the trader with the greatest ability to trade that pair on the forex market.
Trading Strategies for the Current Market
As we saw, the USD has been at the gaining end in the current market environment. Commodity based currencies, on the other hand, have been on the receiving end.
So, with a strengthening dollar, one of the trade strategies can be to look out for currency pairs that benefit from a rising USD to potentially target gains. These would generally be the pairs where the other currency against the USD is a commodity-based currency or one that is depreciating in the current market.
Another way to trade major movements in USD pairs is to keep track of key economic announcements which might affect the value of the dollar. These can be central bank monetary policy dates, inflation data, or non-farm payroll releases. You can track these events from a Forex calendar and strategize your trades accordingly.
Generally speaking, the best pair for you to trade is the one that you are most knowledgeable about and one that meets your trading and risk-reward expectations.
Our top analysts have been reading many USD setups in the current market shifts and their charts are showing a few exciting patterns which can be traded to target potential profits.
You can know about these pairs and trade them LIVE with our pro analysts in an upcoming webinar by clicking HERE.
And if you wish to get more trade setups, check out Chris Pulver’s brand new trading system – Master Flex.
Master Flex combines 3 different investing departments (research, analysis, and trading) into 1 simple system and gives you all that data in a matter of seconds! In fact, Chris calls it the best thing he’s ever created.
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