Real Interest Rates: Is the Fed Finally Ahead of the Curve? – Mish Talk
Case Shiller National and Top 10 City Home Prices – OER, Rent and CPI from BLSCurrent Case-Shiller data, released today, is through November. The rest of the numbers from the BLS reflect the same timeframe.OER stands for Owner’s Equivalent Rent. It’s the price one would pay to rent their own house from themselves, unfurnished, without […]
How Long is the Lag Between Fed Rate Hikes and Real World Activity? – Mish Talk
How Long the Lag?Waller’s ViewHow Quickly Will Rate Increases Slow Economy?The Wall Street Journal reports Fed’s Interest-Rate Strategy in 2023 Hinges on How Quickly Rate Increases Slow EconomyFederal Reserve officials’ deliberations this week over how much more to raise interest rates will hinge on how much they expect the economy to slow this year.Key to […]
A Japan Shock Could Soon Hit Global Markets
A reversal in Japanese monetary policy would likely have major implications at a time when other central banks are withdrawing liquidity. Source link
Why Do We Have Reduced Participation in a Labor Shortage Environment? – Mish Talk
Labor force participation rates from the BLS, chart by MishParticipation Rate Chart NotesThe Labor Force Participation Rate is the calculated as the labor force divided by the working-age population.The Labor force is the number of people working or actively looking for work. Unemployed persons are in the labor force.Participation rates have generally been declining except […]
Demographically Sobering Thoughts on US Employment in the Next Five Years – Mish Talk
Civilian Noninstitutional Population from BLS, projections by the CBO, chart by MishCivilian Noninstitutional Population (CNIP) DefinitionPersons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the […]
Pandemic Bellwether Services Like Food Delivery Go Out of Business – Mish Talk
Decline of the Nice-to-Have EconomyThe Wall Street Journal discusses The Decline of the Nice-to-Have EconomyIn 2020, Nestlé bought Freshly, a home-meal delivery service, for $950 million. At its peak during the pandemic, Freshly said it was delivering more than one million meals a week to Americans. Yet Nestlé is shutting down home delivery of Freshly […]
What Do Initial and Continued Claims Suggest About Timing of a Recession? – Mish Talk
Initial and continued unemployment claims data from the BLS, months calculation by MishCurrent data is easily within a timeframe that recession may have started. In half of the last eight recessions, a recession had already started on the current numbers.Continued Claims Monthly Average Continued unemployment claims monthly average from the BLS, chart by MishThe Covid pandemic […]
White House Approves Sending 31 Abrams Tanks to Ukraine Against Pentagon Advice – Mish Talk
“Today I am announcing that the United States will be sending 31 Abram tanks to Ukraine. [Defense] Secretary [Lloyd] Austin has recommended this step because it will enhance the Ukraine’s capacity to defend its territory and achieve its strategic objective.” The Wall Street Journal reports White House Approves Sending Abrams Tanks to UkraineThe White House formally […]
The Biggest Collapse in M2 Money Supply Since the Great Depression – Mish Talk
M1 and M2 numbers are from the Fed, ODL is a derivative of M2, described below. Data for the above chart is from the Fed’s H.6 Money Stock Report, released January 24.Monetary DefinitionsM1 consists of (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) demand deposits at commercial banks […]
The Case for Stagflation: US Composite PMI Shows Wage Pressures Persist – Mish Talk
S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows Private sector contraction in the US continues into the new year, with renewed pick up in cost pressures.Key FindingsFlash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.6 (December: 45.0). 3-month high. Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.6 (December: 44.7). 3-month high. Flash US Manufacturing […]