Within 30 Years, 100 Percent of the US Deficit Will Be Medicare and Social Security – Mish Talk
‘If You Really Want To Understand How Much Trouble We’re In, Give Me A Few Minutes Of Your Time’ says Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ).Ten Key QuotesIf You Really Want To Understand How Much Trouble We’re In, Give Me A Few Minutes Of Your Time.Your government is just an insurance company with an armyIn the next […]
What Do Real Income and Spending Suggest About Recession Timing? – Mish Talk
Real Disposable Income (DPI) and Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data from the BEA, chart by MishThe word “real” means inflation-adjusted. It’s real income and spending that are inputs to GDP.Transfer payments are redistributions of money for which there are no goods or services exchanged. Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and food stamps (now called SNAP) […]
A Better Definition of Money and Lacy Hunt’s Thoughts on When a Recession Will Start – Mish Talk
How Do We Count Money?Milton Friedman postulated that MV = PT, where M is money supply, V is velocity, an PT is Price multiplied by Transactions (or GDP). Mathematical transposition says V = GGP / Money. This leads to the question: What is Money? Friedman thought it was M1 (essentially checking accounts but other mostly meaningless items). Greenspan […]
One and Done for Fed Rate Hikes in 2023? – Mish Talk
Rate hike probabilities for the February 1 FOMC meeting.The above graph is from CME Fedwatch. The market is nearly 100 percent certain of a rate hike in February to the range 4.50-4.75 percent.Let’s turn our focus to December.Target Rate Probabilities for December 2023The market says it’s odd-on for the Fed to cut rates later this year. So […]
The Final GDPNow Forecast for 2022 Q4, What Does It Say About Recession? – Mish Talk
GDPNow data from the Atlanta Fed, Chart by Mish. Chart NotesThe blue line is the base forecast. It is about all the public sees or hears about when the BEA releases its GDP reports, but it isn’t what matters most.The red line is Real Final Sales (RFS). That is the bottom line estimate for the economy […]
Alice Debates the Mad Hatter and the Red Queen on Timing the Recession – Mish Talk
Setting the Stage for a DebateWhile traveling through Wonderland, Alice met Humpty Dumpty. He was reading the dictionary that he wrote. Alice asked Humpty if he would discuss recession. “Sure, I will discuss anything,” said Humpty.Alice quipped, “This sure seems like a strange non-recession.” “Oh,” said Humpty. “In Wonderland, when you hint there may be a recession, […]
Recession Watch: The Yield Curve is the Most Inverted Since the Early 1980s – Mish Talk
Treasury Yields from the New York Fed, chart by MishOn the dismal retail sales report on Wednesday, the yield curve steepened towards deeper inversions.Treasury Yields from the New York Fed, inversion calculations by MishInversion Notes 2-year to 10-year spread: -0.69 Percentage Points30-year to 3-month spread: -1.15 Percentage Points10-year to 3-month spread: -1.32 Percentage PointsOne has to […]
December Was Another Retail Sales Disaster, Even Worse With Negative Revisions – Mish Talk
Retail sales from commerce department, chart by MishAdvance Retail SalesToday, the Commerce Department released Advance Retail Sales Data for November.Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $677.1 billion, down 1.1 percent (±0.5 percent) from the […]
The Best Video On Climate Change That You Will Ever See – Mish Talk
Annual CO2 emissions chart from Data in Our World.This is an absolutely brilliant speech by British satirist, Konstantine Kisin.Is Kisin’s Video For You?If you think that you, president Biden, Gretta, Al Gore, or anyone in government will do anything that matters about climate change, the video is for you.If you think that you, president Biden, […]
John Kerry Says We Need “Money, Money, Money, Money” to Combat 1.5 Degrees of Climate Change – Mish Talk
“The state of the union is coming up. The president’s got to, and you know I think will, because he believes this, we gotta move this. Because that’s the only way we can keep 1.5 degrees alive.””So how do we get there? The lesson I’ve learned in last years, and I’ve learned it as secretary […]