Daily Market Outlook, January 25, 2023 Microsoft’s Poor Guidance Puts A Lid On Tech Enthusiasm, Tesla On Deck TodayAsian markets are trading with a mixed tone as the handover from Wall Street lacked the optimism of recent sessions as Microsoft announced earnings that came in marginally better than consensus, however, guidance for the remainder of 2023 was somewhat downbeat leading to declines in US indices in after hours trading, dragging on Asian markets at the open. The earnings concerns were coupled with inflation data out of Australia which came firmer than anticipated, printing at the highest levels since 1990, leading markets to reprice rate expectations for the RBA to the upside. Data within the European trading session will be confined to the German IFO release, amongst a rather sparse data docket in the UK and the Eurozone. Yesterday’s German manufacturing data printed below expectations, while its services metric came in with a surprise to the upside, above the pivotal 50 level suggesting expansion in the sector. The business climate in Europe has been supported by a warmer winter than had been expected, meaning less demand for energy. ECB Chief Lagarde also highlighted that there are nascent signs of improvement in economic conditions since the last ECB meeting in December, recent upticks in IFO reading support this view, after back to back gains in the last two months of 2022 markets will be looking for a hattrick today.In the US session, focus will be on housing related data in the form of the MBA Mortgage applications, there has been a recent thaw in the frozen mortgage market activity, with refinancing and purchases picking up in January, however, these activity still remains well below that seen 12 months ago. North of the border the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate policy update this afternoon, markets are pricing a further increase of 25bps today, this would be the lowest increase in the current tightening cycle which has see a net 400bps move higher so far, market watchers are eyeing the potential for a pause after today’s move, as concerns are rising regarding growth prospects, Governor Macklems presser will be parsed for signs of acknowledgement of increasing downside risks to the economy.Markets-wise, European bourses are opening on the softer side as investors mull further earnings risks, with former tech darling Tesla set to announce earnings after the close of New York trade today, once again all eyes will be on forward guidance for the year ahead, further confirmation of Microsoft's downbeat assessment will likely weigh further on risk appetite, spurring further weakness in benchmark equity indices. Commodity and currency markets continue to mark time ahead of the FOMC meeting next week, both Gold and Crude pared some of their upside but remain within recent ranges, the same with the Dollar Index that continues to rotate sound the 102 handle, with Euro in the same rotation around 1.09 as the US 10yr yield retains proximity to the 3.5% level.Overnight News of NoteTech Leads US, European Futures Lower; Asia Shares MixedMicrosoft Erases Gains After Saying Azure Growth To DecelerateAustralia Inflation Surges Again In Q4, Argues For More Rate HikesNew Zealand Rate Bets Trimmed As Inflation Misses RBNZ ForecastAussie Jumps, Kiwi Slumps After Inflation DataYellen Advises Of Fresh Extraordinary US Debt-Limit ManoeuvreUS Leans Toward Providing Abrams Tanks To UkraineGermany To Send Leopard 2s And Allow Others To ExportBond Traders Hedge Prospect That This May Be Fed’s Last HikeBitcoin Eyes First Two-Day Drop Of 2023 As Microsoft Dents MoodOil Advances As Traders Look To China, OPEC For Fresh TriggersTech Leads US, European Futures Lower; Asia Shares MixedTexas Instruments’ Sales Drop for the First Time Since 2020Rupert Murdoch Calls Off Proposed Fox-News Corp MergerTesla Invests $3.6B To Expand Nevada Complex With Two Factories(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)EURGBP .8505, .9605Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 3980Primary support is 3885Primary objective is 4055Below 3840 opens 380020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0835Primary support is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.10Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2250Primary support is 1.2180Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2150 opens 1.210020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7060Primary support is .6950Primary objective is .7250Below .6930 opens .687020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bullish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22500Primary support 20300Primary objective is 25000Below 20200 opens 1940020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
