Daily Market Outlook, February 8, 2023Powell’s Talking Both Sides Of The Street, Investors Climb The Wall of WorryMixed response from Asian equities to Fed Chair Powell’s speech, as Wall Street whipsawed in reaction to what many investors saw as two sided comments regarding the rate path going forward with markets pricing a higher terminal rate, however, Powell once again acknowledged nascent disinflationary signals, most importantly Powell gave little push back on loser financial conditions, this led investors to bid up US equities into the close, the benchmark SP500 ending the day at highs notching up a 1.29% gain closing at 4164. Weak earnings from regional powerhouses Softbank, Sharp & Nintendo (issuing a 10% pay rise to employees, shares down 8% in response) weighed on the NIkkei leading the Shanghai Comp and Hang Seng lower, with all three major indexes nursing losses of circa -0.4%. With no tier one econ data of note European markets are taking their lead from a robust round of earnings on the continent, the CAC40 in France is the standout performer up 0.4% at the open, as Oil Major Total Energies delivered record break earnings continuing the trend of energy sector players banking the benefits of inflation driven gains in energy prices, while less palatable to consumers and politicians, investors continue to reap rewards. In the UK, the country's premier home builder Barratt Developments issued a H1 update in which they underlined a continued uncertain outlook, hampered by elevated mortgage rates leading to a steep decline in housing demand, however, the property player did announce that buybacks would recommence, helping to send the FTSE to new record highs at the open of trade in London.In the US, equity futures are in the red pulling back by 0.3%, with no significant econ data on the docket today, investors will once again focus on central bank policy, with a bevy of Fed policymakers on deck this afternoon, including Kaskari,Wiliams, Waller, Barr and Cook, it is expected that they will tow a similar line to Fed Chair Powell, while accepting some signs of disinflation (mentioned 11 times in his speech last night) it remains too early to consider a pause or pivot in rate policy, indeed the heat in the US labour market remains front and centre concern for the central bank as such expect the lean from messaging to be on the ‘higher for longer’ with markets currently pricing a terminal rate at 5-5.25% ahead of next week's inflation data in the US.FX Options Expiration New York CutAUDUSD .7190 (1.1bln)Overnight News of NoteFed Chair Warns Of Even Higher Rates If Jobs Data Stays StrongDollar Pulls Back As Powell Sticks To Usual Fed PlaybookShares Of Nintendo, Softbank Tumble After EarningsOil Climbs 3rd Day On Subdued Dollar, U.S. Crude Stocks' DropGold Gains As U.S. Dollar Eases Off One-Month PeakJapan Current Account Surplus Shrinks As Weak Yen, Trade Deficits BiteJapan To Hold 3-Way Wage Talks With Business, Labour Groups – NHKFitch Ratings: China 2023 Growth Forecast Revised Up To 5%China’s Open Borders Will Lift Australian GDP, ANZ Bank SaysJapanese Sell Record Amount Of Foreign Bonds As Hedge Costs RiseSocGen's Q4 Profit Beats Expectations, Sees Higher Bad Loan Risks(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4120Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 4080 opens 402020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0610Primary support is 1.0610Primary objective is 1.11Below 1.0585 opens 1.050020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary support is 1.21Primary objective 1.1840Above 1.2165 opens 1.226020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131Primary support is 130Primary objective is 134.70Below 130.80 opens 130.1120 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary resistance is .7050Primary objective is .6750Above .7150 opens .725020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day bearish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 23200Primary support 22200Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
