Daily Market Outlook, February 3, 2023Trifecta of Tech Disappointment Weighs On Risk Sentiment Ahead of NFP’sAsian equity markets took their lead from a late day slide on Wall Street as gains were conceded into the close of trade, although US markets ultimately posted solid returns on the day, they finished well off their best levels and have continued to retreat overnight with US Nasdaq futures leading the way lower with losses circa 2%, the decline in the Nasdaq is being driven by a trifecta of earnings disappointment from Apple, Amazon and Alphabet who all missed on top and bottom line numbers with shares cratering 3-5% post market, with all of the tech darlings reporting gloomy outlooks for the foreseeable fiscal outlook .European investors will eye services PMI’s for January, for more clues regarding the inflationary outlook in the region, especially after ECB Chief Lagarde's hawkish posture in yesterday press conference after the central bank increased rates by a further 50bps, with Lagarde prepping market participants for a further 50bps move at the next meeting. The BoE also raised rates for the eleventh consecutive time, however, the Governor singalled a slight degree of dovishness developing amongst the MPC, although as always they remain data dependent and the Governor was specific in referencing ongoing economic uncertainty.In the US, investors will parse today’s jobs report, markets expect a further modest increase in the January unemployment rate, while a Reuters poll of economists expects the US to have added 185k jobs during the January survey period, with the unemployment rate nudging up to 3.6%. Recent survey data has implied a thawing in wage pressures, further confirmation of this in the January data will encourage investors to continue to price a higher degree of dovishness from the Federal Reserve, any upside surprise in this aspect of the report would be a concern to this the dovish thesis, leading to repricing of Fed hawkishness in the US forward rate curve.Markets-wise, investors are digesting the tepid tech results and the central bank announcements and posturing, in all it feels like the bullish enthusiasm post the FOMC is being curtailed by the reality of the potential for an earnings led recession in the US, the weekly close on US benchmarks is really going to be key to informing the potential for a continuation in the rally or the beginning of a sustained period of buyers remorse with investors booking profits into the weekend and paring risk exposure, the likely outcome is that risk remains supported ahead of the VIX expiration into the middle of the month combined with the next US major data input CPI, after this with few catalysts and the majority of earnings releases in the rearview mirror, investors may reassess into the ides of March a notoriously volatile period!FX Options Expiring At Today’s New York CutEURUSD 1.0950 (763mln), 1.1000 (475mln)USDCAD 1.2800 (2.3bln)Overnight News of NoteApple, Alphabet And Amazon Hurt As Economic Slump Crimps DemandUS Stock Futures Slump, Asian Equities Struggle As Tech WeighsQualcomm Gives Lackluster Forecast; New Markets Show PromiseChina Jan Services Activity Expands For First Time In Five MonthsBoarders Between China, Hong Kong To Reopen From MondayKuroda: BoJ Paper Loss From Bond Holdings Was ¥8.8T At End 22’Japan Jan Services Activity Growth At Three-Month HighMortgage Rates In The US Slip For A Fourth Week, Hitting 6.09%Dollar Climbs As Central Banks See Inflation Risks UnwindBonds Surge As Traders Call Time On Central Bank Rate HikesOil Set For Weekly Loss As China Optimism Dims, Stockpiles SwellStock Buybacks Hit $132 Billion As Companies Snub All Warnings(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)Technical & Trade ViewsSP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4095Primary support is 3990Primary objective is 4384Below 3980 opens 3910/0020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishEURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0850Primary support is 1.0750Primary objective is 1.11Below 1.0730 opens 1.061020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishGBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21Primary support is 1.21Primary objective 1.2460Below 1.2100 opens 1.204020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullishUSDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50Primary resistance is 132.30Primary objective is 125.00Above 133.00 opens 135.0020 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearishAUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050Primary support is .6940Primary objective is .7250Below .6930 opens .687020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bullish VWAPBTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 23000Primary support 21500Primary objective is 25000Below 21000 opens 2030020 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
