Sage Investment Club

  • Swiss Franc among worst performers on Friday.
  • USD/CHF heads for weekly loss, but off lows.
  • EUR/CHF extends rebound, approaches parity.

The USD/CHF is up on Friday, but still down for the week. The pair surged to 0.9234, hitting the highest level in two days and then pulled back toward 0.9200, amid a weaker US Dollar.

On a weekly basis the pair is down by less than 50 pips, after recovering from 0.9080. The weekly close far from the bottom shows some difficulties for the Swiss franc extending the rally.

Dollar lows

The greenback lost momentum following the London fix and US economic data. Existing Home Sales dropped in December from 4.08 million to 4.02 million in December, above the 3.96 million of market consensus.

Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George said in Friday the US Economy is responding to Fed’s actions. She added it is encouraging to see inflation coming down but warned they have to be more patient in assessing if inflation is on a sustainable path down.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan said on Friday that “absolute priority should be to bring inflation down to price stability level.” He added that he won’t hesitate to reinstate negative interest rates to deal with negative inflation.

Analysts at Commerzbank, forecast the USD/CHF will move higher over the next months, reaching 0.95 by June and see it ending the year at 0.94 and resuming the upside in 2024.

The EUR/CHF rose sharply on Friday, with EUR/CHF approaching again the parity area. “Inflation in Switzerland has recently become more benign, which means that the SNB could soon have reached the end of its rate hike cycle. The ECB, on the other hand, is likely to put the brakes on monetary policy for a bit longer. We have therefore adjusted our EUR/CHF forecast slightly upward”, said analyst at Commerzbank. They see the cross at 1.01 by June and 1.02 in September.

Technical levels


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