After two straight monthly declines, consensus was for a big rebound (+2.0% MoM) in retail sales in January – with the almost omnipotent forecasters at BofA seeing an even bigger (+3.0%) surge.And once again BofA nailed it as headline retail sales soared 3.0% MoM in January. That is the biggest jump since March 2021, lifting the YoY rise in retail sales up to +6.4%…Source: BloombergCore retail sales growth also beat on a MoM basis but the YoY slipped to just +4.4% – lowest since March 2022…Source: BloombergThe control group – which filters directly into GDP – saw a 1.7% surge (far better than the +1.0% exp).Finally, as a reminder, all of this retail sales data is nominal – i.e. not adjusted for inflation. So before you charge off writing about how ‘strong’ the spending data is, consider how ‘strong’ the credit card debt load is and how ‘weak’ the savings rate is for Americans struggling after the 32nd straight month of real income declines.So hotter than expected payrolls… hotter than expected inflation.. and now hotter than expected retail sales… Get back to work Mr.Powell!Loading…
