PBOC MLF liquidity injection today – unchanged rate expected (but some expect a small cut)
Later this week from the People’s Bank of China we’ll get the loan prime rate setting: Ahead of that today we’ll get a medium term lending facility (MLF) rollover: 700 billion yuan of this medium-term lending debt is maturing. according to Reuters polling 12 analysts expect the PBOC rollover the 700 billion yuan, 10 expect […]
US 30-year fixed mortgage rate could break 6%
The US housing market has rapidly stalled as mortgage rates surged but there’s a sliver of help on the way. Late yesterday, Mortgage News Daily reported that US 30-year fixed rates are down to 6.07%, which is the lowest since September. Give the falling long-end yields in the past two days, we should be seeing […]
End to rate hikes will coincide with an end to USD gains during early 2023 – Wells Fargo
In the view of economists at Wells Fargo, end to monetary tightening should bring the US Dollar’s gains to an end by early 2023. Eventual US recession to soften the greenback “An end to rate hikes will coincide with an end to USD gains during early 2023. Indeed, we believe a peak in the trade-weighted […]
S&P 500 Toes Technical Cliff, Dollar Has Lost Half of its Rate Era Climb, Event Risk Uneven
S&P 500, Dollar, Monetary Policy, Recession, EURUSD and USDJPY Talking Points: The Market Perspective: S&P 500 Eminis Bearish Below 3,900; USDCNH Bearish Below 7.0000; USDJPY Bullish Above 127.00 The S&P 500 posted its biggest weekly advance in 2 months to the threshold of breaking its bear trend while the Dollar posted an equivalent historical loss […]
US December CPI in line with estimates, Fed expected to gear down to 25 bp tightening rate |
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Dollar wobbles as U.S. inflation fuels hopes of slower Fed rate path By Reuters
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar swayed on Friday, flirting with seven-month lows after a sharp dive overnight as data showed U.S. inflation was slowing, boosting hopes of the Federal Reserve taking its foot […]
Policy rate will need to be higher for longer
St. Louis Federal Reserve leader James Bullard, following today’s Consumer Price Index data that came in as expected on the whole, besides the one exception on a monthly basis in the headline number, stated that the most likely scenario is inflation remaining above 2%, so the policy rate will need to be higher for longer. Key […]
Inflation boosts RBA’s 2023 interest rate outlook
AUDUSD, Daily Australia’s Monthly CPI indicator rose to 7.3% in the year to November, surpassing market forecasts of 7.2% y/y thus fuelling forecasts of further rate hikes in 2023. The most significant contributors to the rise came from housing (+9.6% y/y), food & non-alcoholic beverages (+9.4% y/y), transport (+9.0% y/y), furniture, household appliances & services […]
Dollar languishes as Fed rate hike fears recede; China reopening boosts optimism By Reuters
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. Dollar and Chinese Yuan banknotes are seen in this illustration picture taken June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The U.S. dollar languished near a seven-month low against other major currencies on Tuesday, as investors took heart that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the end […]
USDCAD Breaks Lower as Rate Forecasts Shift Out of Fed’s Favor
USDCAD, Crude Oil and Interest Rate Talking Points: The Market Perspective: USDCAD Bearish Below 1.3500 USDCAD’s violent reversal this past Friday amid US and Canadian employment data led to a clear break of trendlines support and the 100-day SMA With the midpoint of the August to October advance in view, follow through will need to […]