In the view of economists at Wells Fargo, end to monetary tightening should bring the US Dollar’s gains to an end by early 2023.
Eventual US recession to soften the greenback
“An end to rate hikes will coincide with an end to USD gains during early 2023. Indeed, we believe a peak in the trade-weighted US Dollar for the current cycle has already been reached.”
“Over time, we forecast a trend of USD depreciation to gather pace. Initially, that depreciation may be modest during the latter part of 2023, as the US economy falls into recession while other international economies stabilize.”
“We forecast a somewhat more pronounced pace of USD depreciation in 2024, once the Fed begins cutting its policy interest rate by early next year.”