Sage Investment Club

Good Friday evening to all of you here on r/StockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week ahead. :)Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning January 30th, 2023.Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq posts fourth week of gains – (Source)Stocks rose Friday and capped off a winning week fueled by better-than-expected economic growth and a pop in Tesla shares.The Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.95% to settle at 11,621.71, while the S&P 500 gained 0.25% to close at 4,070.56. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 28.67 points, or 0.08%, to finish at 33,978.08.All the major averages posted a positive week and are on pace for a month of gains. The tech-heavy index rose 4.32% and closed out its fourth week of gains. It’s on pace for its best monthly performance since July. The S&P and Dow added 2.47% and 1.81%, respectively, this week.Earnings season pressed on, with strong guidance boosting American Express shares by 10.5% despite a top-and bottom-line miss. Some chip stocks rose even as Intel slumped more than 6% on a dismal earnings report that missed expectations.Tesla rose 11% Friday, and more than 33% for the week after reporting record revenue. It marked the electric vehicle stock’s best weekly performance since May 2013.So far this year, markets have bucked 2022′s selloff trend. The Dow is up 2.5%, while the S&P has gained 6%. The Nasdaq has surged 11%.“We’re putting the final touches on an extremely strong January on the heels of lower inflation, and an economy that’s hanging in there,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. “We’re not out of the woods though. We’ve still got the Fed next week, and they might want to throw some water on this rally.”Investors weighed more economic data Friday ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting. The personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding energy and food, showed prices rose 4.4% from a year ago, the Commerce Department said, and in line with the Dow Jones estimate. So-called PCE is a preferred inflation gauge for the Fed.A better-than-expected fourth-quarter gross domestic product report Thursday also helped stoke hopes that the Fed may manage a soft landing.These are some of the last data points before the central bank’s widely expected 25 basis point hike.This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:S&P Sectors for this past week:Major Indices for this past week:Major Futures Markets as of Friday’s close:Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday’s close:S&P Sectors for the Past Week:Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday’s close:Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday’s close:Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:Here are the upcoming IPO’s for this week:Friday’s Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:February Better In Pre-Election YearsNormally the “weak link” of the Best Months, February has been stronger in pre-election years, #5 for DJIA and NASDAQ; #6 for S&P 500 and #4 for Russell 2000. Average gains range from 1.2% by S&P 500 to 2.8% from NASDAQ. Benefitting from January Effect spillover, Russell 2000 averages 2.7% in pre-election Februarys.The first trading day of February is bullish for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000 and 2000. Average gains on the first day over the most recent 21-year period range from 0.39% by DJIA to 0.65% by Russell 2000. However, after a strong opening day, strength has tended to fade until around the fourth trading day. From there until around the 12-trading day all five indexes have historically enjoyed gains. But those gains have not held through the end of February.Pre-election-year Februarys going back to 1950 for DJIA and S&P 500, 1971 for NASDAQ and 1979 for Russell 1000 & 2000, exhibit a similar pattern, but the gains have held through the end of the month.February 2023 Almanac: Historically Solid Gains in Pre-Election YearsAlthough February is right in the middle of the Best Six Months, its long-term track record, since 1950, is rather tepid. February ranks no better than sixth and has posted meager average gains except for the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks, benefiting from “January Effect” carry over; historically tend to outpace large cap stocks in February. The Russell 2000 index of small cap stocks turns in an average gain of 1.1% in February since 1979—just the sixth best month for that benchmark. Even with the market struggling the past two trading sessions Russell 2000 has maintained a performance lead this January compared to DJIA and S&P 500. This does bode well for the continued outperformance in February by small-cap stocks.In pre-election years, February’s performance generally improves with average returns all turning positive. NASDAQ performs best, gaining an average 2.8% in pre-election-year Februarys since 1971. Russell 2000 is second best, averaging gains of 2.7% since 1979. DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 1000, the large-cap indices, tend to lag with average advances ranging from 1.2% to 1.7%.5 Things To Know About Recessions And Bear Markets“I am an optimist because I don’t see the point in being anything else.” Abraham LincolnWith all the talk about a pending recession and stocks in a bear market, today, I wanted to share some more thoughts and stats on recessions and bear markets.First things first, we do not currently anticipate a recession in 2023, which is quite opposite of the general consensus. You can read more about that here and here.What exactly is a bear market? For the definition of a bear market, we are using the traditional definition, which is an index down 20% or more from the recent peak. Yes, there isn’t much difference between 19.8% and 20.0%, so we will also include some near bear markets as well, but when we say bear market, that is what we mean.First, do all bear markets take place in a recession? Turns out they don’t, as stocks, indeed can have a bear market without a recession. The worst ever was the 34% bear during the Crash of 1987, which all took place without a recession.Second, taking things a step further, here we broke down the performance based on if the bear market took place in a recession or not. Take note; we did include some ‘near bear markets’ this time to get more instances. Plus, a near bear feels like a bear market if you are in it. What still amazes us about the table below is that the average bear market without a recession was 24%, and this recent bear was 25%. Assuming we avoid a recession and October was indeed low, this was right on the bullseye.Now take another look at the table above. The last few bear markets recovered quite quickly. In fact, the last three bear markets that didn’t have a recession recovered in four, four, and three months. Something to think about here, as stocks are two months off the October lows.Third, this has been making the rounds lately and has been adding to some of the worries. Looking at all the bear markets that took place around a recession, not once did the bear market end before the recession started. In other words, if we are indeed headed for a recession in 2023, this could suggest that new lows may also be quite likely. Incredibly, bears don’t end for another nine months on average after the recession started, before they find their ultimate low. Again, we don’t see a recession, so this wouldn’t be the case now, but the data is quite compelling.Fourth, the month of October tends to be a bear-market killer. Most bears have met their end during the month of October, more than any other month.Below, we break down those previous 17 bear (or near bear) markets. The bottom line six of them ended in October, and we think there’s a very good chance number seven just happened.Fifth and lastly, if October was indeed the bear market low, be open to the idea of higher prices over the coming two years. While not a predictor of future behavior, history shows the markets were up more than 40% a year off of the bear-market lows and up almost 60% two years off of them. During uncertain and volatile situations (like the ones that markets have treated us to in 2022), it can be hard to imagine a positive path forward, and all we see are the obstacles. Stepping back a bit can be a helpful reminder of the resiliency of the markets over the long term.Dr. Seuss said, “Sometimes the questions are complicated, and the answers are simple.” To me, bear markets can be confusing and complicated, but the answer has always been that they indeed do eventually end, and historically better times will come when they do.STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending January 27th, 2023(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 1/29/23(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:Monday 1.30.23 Before Market Open:Monday 1.30.23 After Market Close:Tuesday 1.31.23 Before Market Open:Tuesday 1.31.23 After Market Close:Wednesday 2.1.23 Before Market Open:Wednesday 2.1.23 After Market Close:Thursday 2.2.23 Before Market Open:Thursday 2.2.23 After Market Close:Friday 2.3.23 Before Market Open:Friday 2.3.23 After Market Close:(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY’S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)(NONE.)(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).DISCUSS!What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket. 🙂

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