Sage Investment Club

In October last year JPM analysts concluded a recession was basically a done deal. They have now dialled that well back, saying the chance of a recession has fallen sharply. A soft landing is now the most likely scenario.

JPMorgan’s trading model shows that seven of nine asset classes now show less than a 50% chance of a recession:

  1. U.S. high-grade credit
  2. U.S. high-yield credit
  3. Five-year treasuries
  4. European stock market index
  5. European Union high-grade credit
  6. European Union high-yield credit
  7. Five-year European Union government bonds

The S&P 500 and base metals are still reflecting recession probabilities over 50%.

Bloomberg (gated) carry the info from JPM. The S&P 500 Index is still assigning a 73% probability of a recession materializing (down from 98% in 2022).

Weekly SPX:

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