Sage Investment Club

Major European currencies ceded ground to dollar on Tuesday, EURUSD broke down 1.06 and GBPUSD 1.20 level. The start of European session saw major sell-off both in EUR and GBP:Positive December price data from Germany failed to offset selling pressure in Euro, despite significant pullback in the rate of consumer price growth Рfrom 10% to 8.6% in annual terms and from -0.5% to -0.8% in monthly terms. Data on the German labor market also provided little help to battered Euro, although the number of unemployed in the country fell by 13 thousand, and unemployment remained unchanged at 5.5%, contrary to the forecast of an increase of 0.1% to 5.6%. There is an increased activity of buyers in the gold market which is a signal of major shift in real rate expectations or market perception of recession or geopolitical risks. The price continues to move in the upward channel and has gained more than 1% today on a powerful bullish impulse. Buyers tested resistance near the round level of $1850, however, after the pullback, aggressive gold bids resumed. Keep in mind that the price is approaching the upper limit of bullish trend channel, and the round $1850 level could be perceived by majority of players as a good level to take profits from 12% rally since the beginning of November. To understand why gold rises in prices, it should be remembered that in early November, market risk-free rates in the United States (government bond yields) reached their peak Рone of the main factors of demand for gold. When they began to decline, gold began to rise in price:It was clear from the last Fed meeting that the tightening cycle is nearing its end, so expectations for a cycle of interest rate cuts are likely to be slowly building now. Accelerating gold growth without a corresponding reaction in bond yields indicates a high risk of a bearish correction in gold in the short term:Nevertheless, the medium-term trend for gold is definitely up and after a good downward movement, buying gold on expectations of policy easing by central banks looks very justified.

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