Sage Investment Club

China heads off on a week-long holiday at the end of this week for Lunar New Year, welcoming in the Year of the Rabbit.

Let’s see if any of this data pulls a rabbit from the hat:

  • This
    snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access
    it here
  • The
    times in the left-most column are GMT.
  • The
    numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous
    month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
    next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median

This data from China is likely to be negatively impacted by the surge in COVID infections at the end of last year. A hit to the economy came from workers falling ill and consumers staying home for fear of becoming sick

On a more optimistic note there are indications that infection waves in major cities have peaked and that activity has rebounded in recent weeks. The data should improve in the months ahead.

Gross domestic product in Q4 will be much weaker than in Q3.

December data:

  • Retail sales likely plunged further from November in December (consumer sentiment fell sharply). Car sales have improved, there were tax breaks offered for the purchase of electric vehicles
  • The rate of unemployment is expected to have risen to 5.8% in December from 5.7% in November, while slower growth in incomes throughout 2022 has meant households exercising caution about spending
  • Industrial Production looks to have risen very slowly indeed. Worker absences, supply chain and logistics snarls, weak global demand for exports have all weighed on factory output.
  • Fixed-asset investment has been supported by infrastructure spending. Property investment is a drag, the sector is experiencing a debt implosion driven slump.

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