Gold Price Forecast for 2023 and Next 5 Years: Predictions for 2024-2025, 2030

2023-01-09 2023-01-09
Gold Price Forecast & Predictions: 2023 and Beyond

Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/

After falling below $1200 per ounce in 2018, gold rebounded sharply over the next 12 months, and a significant bullish trend began. Its yield increased by almost 20%, whereas its quotes went up to $1,556 per ounce. The rally continued in 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic increased the popularity of the precious metal as a hedging instrument, which has led to an increase in its price.

2021 saw several ups and downs in the price of gold. The reasons behind them were different. Coronavirus relief packages and periods of economic recovery led to a decrease in the price of gold — while rising inflation, the spread of the pandemic, and geopolitical tensions made investments into gold much more attractive. The end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022 were quite turbulent, which pushed gold’s price practically to the highs of July 2020.   

In this article, we’ll look into historical data, see what experts have to say, and make a gold price forecast and prediction for 2022 and some years ahead.

A Recent History of Gold and Gold Price Today

Western investors’ interest in gold led to an increase in its rate from a minimum of $1160 in the summer of 2018 to a record high of almost $2073 in August of this year. During this time, the precious metal has become one of the most attractive financial assets on the planet. This year, the economic fallout from the pandemic and negative bond yields have driven a record $60 billion in gold ETF capital growth. This is twice as much as in 2009, at the height of the financial crisis.

The pandemic has convinced investors that gold should be part of their portfolios. The precious metal has become a leading hedge against volatility in equity markets and negative interest rates. Gold turned out to be one of the most attractive assets in 2020.

Large investors bought gold for protection against possible deflation in some countries, which could be the result of slowing economic growth and rising inflation in other countries as governments continue to pump liquidity into the economy. For instance, the American bank JPMorgan earned about 1 billion dollars this year from trading in precious metals (mainly gold). According to the consulting company Coalition, this year, revenue from trading in precious metals from the 50 largest investment banks will double and reach a nine-year high of $2.5 billion.

Even Warren Buffett changed his mind about gold. Previously, he considered precious metals a useless asset. This year, his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. acquired 20.9 million shares of one of the world’s largest gold mining companies – Barrick Gold Corp. (Canada).

However, demand in the main gold consuming countries, India and China, has not been up to par this year. People sold their savings in gold or pledged them when the precious metal rose to a record high in local currencies. The high cost of the precious yellow metal and the economic turmoil caused by the pandemic have crippled consumer demand. Therefore, in the first half of the year, jewelry purchases decreased in volume by 46% compared to the same period last year. The reason is quarantine and a decrease in the income of the population. 

Investors will continue to fill the gap in demand. This year, exchange-traded funds will accumulate 1205 tons of precious metal in their reserves, three times more than in 2019. The figure may reach 1,362 tons next year.

Central banks have been buying precious metals quarterly since early 2011. In the third quarter of this year, they became net sellers, reducing reserves by 12.1 tons. Nonetheless, CBRs remain net buyers annually as demand for the first three quarters was 220.6 tons. In all likelihood, they will maintain this status in 2020, although the volume of purchases will be less than in the previous two years. Russia has suspended purchases, and China has not reported an increase in reserves since September 2019.

The yellow metal rose 17% in the first half of 2020 and another 10% in July, and it reached a record high of $2073 per ounce on August 6. Since then, an ounce of gold has dropped to $1,844 amid news of a coronavirus vaccine. However, the euphoria about the vaccine is premature. The pandemic is not leaving the agenda. Nevertheless, this year’s yield on the precious metal was in the range of 16-30%. Note that many forecasts for 2020 assumed the growth of precious metal quotations to $1600-1700 per ounce in the event of increased geopolitical and economic instability.

The economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continued, and increasing inflation expectations in April and May 2021 led to a lower price. Overall, in January-March 2021, we could see a decline in the price of gold due to US employment figures going up. Gold dropped by 4.7% to $1,774.80 per ounce on June 16, its lowest level since late April. The pullback came after a statement from the Federal Open Market Committee sounded an optimistic note on the recovery of the US economy. 

July brought steady growth due to the sharp decline in US yields. The price of gold didn’t change much in August; however, there was a significant fall from August 6-9, which was caused by strong US job data. The recovery was quite fast. The downtrend began at the beginning of Fall 2021, and the price fell to $1,726.11 per ounce on September 29 due to higher US yields. Following that, gold grew for a month and a half and reached $1,866.96 on November 18. A major driver of this rally was the investor rush into gold as a hedge against inflation. 

The second half of November saw a sharp decline in the price with a stronger dollar. The main reason for this was a strong expectation for a new financial stimulus by the Fed to fight inflation. From December 2, when the price was at a local minimum of $1,768, the bullish trend began. Inflation, pandemic risks, and geopolitical tensions led to the price of more than $1,900 per ounce.

 The current price of gold is $1 897.10. 

Gold Price Prediction for 2023: What Do Experts Predict?

Gold price predictions for 2022 from different experts vary and depend on how the market will respond to inflation, the central bank’s policy, and geopolitical tensions. 

High volatility has been influencing the stock markets since the very beginning of 2022. At the same time, gold’s price growth has been quite steady, and the uptrend is continuing. Inflation is the core factor that will impact the price of gold in the near future. It is at the highest rate in the US in the last forty years. Gold’s status as the top hedging instrument against inflation is likely to push the prices further, reaching more than $2,000 per ounce. 

The factors that will determine the price of gold in 2022 and may lead to its increase above $2,000 per ounce include:

In 2022 there should be a rise in the rate of gold, but not above $2,000 per ounce. The factors that will facilitate this include:

1. The increase in inflationary expectations and the weakening of the US currency will result from generous fiscal and monetary stimulus.

2. An increase in investment demand and a gradual recovery in consumer demand in China and India will support the precious metal rate at a high level.

3. Government bonds (government debt) will not play the role of defensive assets in the face of inflation and negative interest rates since they will cease to generate income.

4. Tense geopolitical situations will lead to gold becoming a hedging instrument on a larger scale. 

At the same time, the opportunity cost of owning gold decreases. This will increase the popularity of the precious metal in the eyes of investors in 2022.

All Western countries are facing the end of unprecedented growth in the money supply. From the beginning of February to the end of October 2021, the aggregate volume of money supply in the United States increased from $15.4 billion to $18.8 billion, an increase of 22%. In the United States, the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan, the figure rose 15.7% from February to September. 

On the other hand, volatile risk-on assets may have a negative impact on gold’s price. In this scenario, the bears will take the rates to the low levels of September 2021. 

UBS

UBS recognizes the resilience of gold, which is largely due to an elevated demand for portfolio hedges, as well as the Fed’s insufficient response towards inflation. However, regardless of gold’s resilience, UBS does still expect gold to fall to $1,650-1,700/oz from July to December 2022, as a result of  the ease of threats of the omicron variant, and reduced inflation.

Bank of America

According to Bank of America experts, growing inflation, continuing pandemic risks, and geopolitical conflicts contribute to the investments in gold. BofA analysts expect the average gold price to be at $1,925/oz throughout the year.   

Wallet Investor

According to Wallet Investor, the closing price for 2022 will be $2,065.25. The prognosis for the coming months of the year is positive, and no strong declines are expected.

Long Forecast

The Economy Forecast Agency is even more optimistic. They expect the price to be over $2,000 the whole year, and the lowest price will be $2,091 in April. The highest price will be set in September at $2,536. The year will close at $2,391.

Gold Technical Analysis

To do a high-quality technical analysis of the XAUUSD, we’ll analyze its monthly chart first.

As shown in the gold price chart above, the XAUUSD has been in a global bullish trend since 2001. Laying the Fibonacci grid over the gold price pattern, we’ll see some development stages of the gold trend’s lifespan. I’ve marked five of them in the chart above:

• 1 — Area of peak values: the red zone going from 2.618 to 3.618 as per Fibonacci ratios. The price hasn’t remained in that area for long as the market is overbought.

• 2 — Area of dynamic development: the blue zone going from 1.618 to 2.618. The gold price is highly volatile there and can fluctuate rapidly.

• Areas 3 and 4 are price consolidation zones. Strong support/resistance levels are near the limits of those areas, and much effort is required to break them through.

• 5 — Area of the buyers’ last hope. If the price is here, a bullish trend is likely to end soon. However, the limits of that area can provide support to the buyers and result in pullbacks.

The XAU price is currently consolidating in the area of dynamic development, which may indicate that the trend development stages shifted up by one stage. Thus, a projected correction is unlikely to go below the limits of Area 3, i.e., below 1400 – 1500 USD per ounce.

Gold Forecast For Next Three Months

I’ve done a similar technical analysis of gold quotes using Fibo channels on the weekly chart to make a forecast for the next three months.

I’ve marked five areas on the XAUUSD’s weekly price chart for a local bullish trend that has been developing since the end of 2018. The price is in the consolidation area, close to the ultimate fifth level, whose lower limit coincides with Area 2 of the global trend.

As the chart above suggests, the current gold price is moving within a descending triangle, confirming that the global area 2 turned into a consolidation zone. Gold’s future price will most likely continue fluctuating within that triangle, in the range of 1680 – 1830 US dollars. A fall in trading volumes and the MACD’s cascading bullish divergences support the idea of the price’s consolidation on the current levels.

Long-Term Gold Analysis for 2021/2022

To estimate gold’s potential in the coming years, we need to understand the direction in which the XAUUSD will go upon the triangle’s completion. The price history analysis of various instruments in similar conditions points to a likelier breakout to the upside. Once the triangle’s upper edge is broken, the price target will be located on the limits of the second global area, at around 1950 – 2000 USD. Next, there can be a small pullback, but if the buyer is strong enough, the price may break through the limits between area 1 and 2, reach the previous historical maximum at 2074 USD, and even update it. The next target will then be the level of 2350 US dollars.

The chart above shows the range of XAUUSD price fluctuations for each month based on the realistic gold forecast I’ve made. I’ve calculated the expected trading range using Bollinger bands. The table below presents the same values in a text format.

Long-term trading plan for GOLD

To finalize our XAUUSD technical analysis, I suggest making a trading plan for exploiting projected growth in the range of area 2.

I’ve marked two long trades with blue lines in the chart above. The first one can be opened at the current price, at around 1745 USD. The second one is in the buyers’ activity zone, at 1690 USD. Calculate each position’s volume in a way that excludes losing more than 3% of the deposit when Stop-loss at 1575 USD is triggered. According to that trading plan, profits should be fixed in two areas as well: the first half of your position in gold can be closed at the projected price of 1820 USD. The rest of gold can be sold at 1905 USD. Then, if we are lucky to have a pullback to the previous levels, the trading plan can be repeated.

XAUUSD technical analysis is presented by Mikhail Hypov.

Check  XAU/USD short-term forecasts and trading signals based on technical analysis in our blog!

Gold weekly price forecast as of 09.01.2023

Gold is trading in the medium-term uptrend. The price broke out Target Zone 2, 1848 – 1842. The next upside target is Target Zone 3, 1911 – 1905. It is relevant to enter new purchases on the correction to strong support levels – support (А) 1806 – 1800 and support (В) 1775 – 1765.

One could enter a long trade at the above-indicated zones when there is a buy pattern. The first upside target will be the high of last week.

XAUUSD trading ideas for the week:

1. Buy according to the pattern at support (А) 1806 – 1800. TakeProfit: 1869. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules.

2. Buy according to the pattern at support (В) 1775 – 1765. TakeProfit: 1869. StopLoss: according to the pattern rules.

Technical analysis based on margin zones methodology was provided by an independent analyst, Alex Rodionov.

Gold Price Forecast 2023

Analysts expect that production will expand through 2023, given that prices are well above production costs. Uncertainty over the end of the economic recession and higher rates of inflation may push gold prices higher.

Wallet Investor

The opening price on January 1 is believed to be $2,070.95. The price will go up all the way till December. In July, the opening price will reach $2,184.40, and this position will be held further. The closing price of the last day in December will be $2,260.67.

Long Forecast

January 2023 will begin with the opening price of $2,391. Until the end of the year, gold will face a gradual downtrend. At the end of June, the closing price is thought to be $2,306. After that, there will be no sharp ups or downs – the closing price in December is predicted to be $2,305.

Coin Price Forecast

2023 will meet us with $2,148, according to the Coin Price Forecast. By the middle of 2023, the price will be $2,167, and the growth will maintain till the end of the year, when the closing price will be $2,233.

Gold Price Forecast 2024

Overall, the price of gold in 2024 will go up, and no significant falls are expected. However, investors should keep in mind that this growth will be at a slow pace. There is good news for long-term investors – the volatility in 2024 is said to be low. Let’s dive into the details.

Wallet Investor

The opening price in January will be $2,266. The whole year will show stable growth. At the end of June, the average price will be $2,379. The last day of 2023 will leave us with $2,462.

Long Forecast

The opening price in 2024 will be $2,305. No sharp falls are expected. By the beginning of July, the opening price will be $2,701. A downtrend will start after that, and it will continue till the end of October. Then, the situation will change, and the end of the year will see the closing price of $3,026 in December.

Coin Price Forecast

$2,233 will be the price at the beginning of 2024. By the middle of the year, it will manage to go up to $2,346. The growth will continue to make all investors happy, and the 31st of December will congratulate the world with a closing price of $2,622.

Gold Price Forecast 2025-2030

Though it is hard to say for sure for such a long period of time, experts from different resources concur that gold will continue rising. However, they have opposite opinions about the speed of this growth.

Wallet Investor

The opening price in 2025 will be $2,464.95. The closing price in June 2025 will be $2,578.46, and it will continue going up – at the end of December, the closing price will be $2,660.12. The first half of 2026 is also nice and pleasant for gold investors. The beginning of January will bring $2,661.61. The end of June will meet us with $2,775.48. The following periods will also demonstrate the uptrend, and the year will close with $2,841.93. Moderate growth will continue in January 2027, and the price will reach $2,843.28. The final period of the forecast is March 2027; the price will reach $2,915,24.

Long Forecast

The Economy Forecast Agency gives information only till the end of April 2026. The beginning of 2025 will continue the uptrend. The opening price in January will be $3,026. A small decline will happen in April and May as the price drops to $2,999. Then, the price will grow till the beginning of September, when it becomes $3,328. It won’t be able to hold that mark for a long time and will have fallen to $2,980 by the end of the year. However, it will go up again and will rise up to $3,106 by the end of April 2026.

Coin Price Forecast

2025 will start with a price of $2,622, and the uptrend will continue: mid-year will give us $3,822. Then, the price will lose almost $1,000. But the recovery will be fast enough, and the figures will go up till the middle of 2028; at that point, the price will reach $3,799. The growth will continue at a faster pace since then. By the end of 2030, the price will be $4,503. 

*Please note that long-term price forecasts for any investment asset are very approximate and may change due to various factors. Keep reading to find out which factors may affect the price of gold.

How Has the Price of Gold Changed Over Time?

Below is a chart that shows how the price of gold changed over the past ten years. In order to make our predictions and forecasts as accurate as possible, it’s important to look back to such historical data.  

Source: Goldprice.org, the screenshot was taken on March 1, 2022

One of the biggest drivers of gold is currency values. Because gold is denominated in dollars, USD can have a significant impact on the price of gold. A weaker dollar makes gold relatively less expensive for foreign buyers and may lift prices. On the other hand, a stronger dollar makes gold relatively more expensive for foreign buyers, thus possibly lowering prices.

The price at the beginning of 2019 was $1,413.75. Though it fell insignificantly in April to $1,353.26, it continued going up till August and became $1,601.35. However, in November, the price lowered to $1,524.80. The reason for this was the falling gold demand in India. Actually, it fell to its lowest level in three years. The World Gold Council (WGC) explained that this was due to  domestic prices climbing to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas.

The price was able to recover and rose up to $2,063.56 in August 2020. This peak hasn’t been reached again yet. The coronavirus pandemic and the unprecedented flow of money supply by government stimulus triggered sharp buying in the bullion metal in both domestic and global markets in 2020. 

The price didn’t manage to maintain this high and fell to $1,840.38 in November 2020. Pfizer was the main reason. The US-based pharmaceutical corporation announced the Covid-19 vaccine news. They made a surprising announcement regarding the status of their coronavirus vaccine trial.

The price managed to recover a little bit, but that didn’t save it from another fall in March 2021 – it fell to $1,742.68 as the dollar strengthened after the jump in US private-sector jobs. “Gold looked as if it was topping out,” Ross Norman, Chief Executive Officer at Metals Daily, said. “Some profit-taking exacerbated the decline, and gold will rebuild from here.” He was right – in May 2021, the price became $1,904.76. Little did he know that the price would again go down, reaching $1,771.60 because of problems with the coronavirus in India.

There were no sharp ups or downs during summer. The first month of Fall 2021 ended with a price decline to $1,726.11 per ounce. The next seven weeks showed a strong recovery – up to $1,866.96. This happened due to the investor rush into safe-haven assets. A stronger dollar and the Fed policy led to the following sharp decline. However, the situation changed in December when the bulls took the trend. Such factors as the pandemic, continuing inflation, and the geopolitical crisis pushed the price to its current $1,930+ per ounce.

Factors That May Affect the Price of Gold

Typically, traders associate fundamental analysis with the stock market, not gold. While fundamental stock market analysts monitor certain companies’ financial statements, gold market analysts monitor macroeconomic factors, political and economic world stability, and competition from investment alternatives to forecast prices. Let’s look into five macroeconomic parameters that can influence the cost of the main precious metal.

1. Inflation

Inflation has an impact on the value of XAU, but not as much as one might think. Most novice gold investors believe that if inflation rises in the US, then gold price should also go up since more inflation dollars will have to be paid per ounce. However, in the long term, there is no strong correlation between inflation and gold prices. This can be seen from the chart below, which shows the inflation dynamics in the US and gold prices.

Source: Tradingview.com 

This lack of a strong correlation can be explained by two reasons:

a) Gold is not a commodity. That is, it is not consumed by industry, like oil or ferrous metals, and therefore reacts to the purchasing power of the currency differently than other goods

b) During periods of economic and stock market growth, gold has to “compete” for profitability and investor attention. Moreover, during such periods, inflation is usually at a high level.

2. Currency Fluctuations 

Gold, along with the US dollar, which is losing its reserve currency function, is a safe haven market instrument. Therefore, if the exchange rate of one of the currencies (for example, the dollar) depreciates relative to the other reserve currencies, while the purchasing power of buying gold in other currencies is preserved, then the logical consequence is the rise in the price of gold relative to the depreciated currency. The chart shows an inverse long-term relationship between the US dollar index (white line) and the dynamics of gold prices (yellow line).

Source: Tradingview.com

3. The Risk of a Recession Due to Geopolitical Tensions

Any military conflict is the most significant (after financial market crises) source of uncertainty for investors. Gold is best used as a safe investment in times when investors are terrified, and regional conflicts may well cause such conditions in the market. They are also associated with several other factors that drive prices up, including excessive spending, money supply, political instability, and currency depreciation.

4. Interest Rates

Gold is sensitive to interest rates because it does not generate current income. Therefore, it is highly sensitive to alternatives in the stock market that offer potential income, such as bonds or even stocks that pay dividends. There is a noticeable, albeit not perfect, negative correlation. When US government bond yields rise, the likelihood is high that gold will trend sideways or even downtrend, while declining yields tend to lead to very positive movements in gold prices. 

For example, to combat the recession in the early 2000s, the Fed lowered interest rates to very low levels, forcing long-term investors to withdraw from low-yield bonds and diversify their portfolios with gold. This provided good support to the already rising gold prices. On January 26, 2022, the Fed provided clues on rate hikes, which led to a sharp decline from $1,847.61 to $1,791,03 on January 26-28. 

5. Supply and Demand

Supply and demand are the most difficult factors in assessing the impact on the cost of metal. Large investors in gold, including central banks, the IMF, and leading funds, significantly impact the market. The actions of these participants can substantially change the demand for gold jewellery and investment instruments.

Accounting for the actions of these large players is an impossible task for an ordinary private investor who does not have access to the disclosed information of all the players’ data.

For a general understanding of the market balance, you need to know that most of the demand for gold is more or less evenly distributed between investment instruments and jewelry.

As an example, it is shown below that China and India (with strong economic growth) have become major buyers of gold over the past two decades to invest and create reserves and, therefore, have provided an additional stimulus for price increases.

China, Central Bank gold reserves, t.:

India, Central Bank gold reserves, t.:

Conclusion: Is Gold a Good Investment?

Not only is gold known for being a portfolio diversifier, but with inflation fears on the rise, investors tend to turn to gold because it is considered a good hedge against rising prices.

“During periods of systemic risk, both gold and the dollar tend to be used as safe havens and may move in a similar direction,” says Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Research, World Gold Council.

We maintain a long-term positive view on gold  in 2022-2030.

Source: Coin Price Forecast

As new initiatives of the world’s central banks and governments to support markets and economies were successfully implemented in 2021, the gold price may have shown a decline. However, new waves of coronavirus, skyrocketing inflation, political tensions, and conflict destabilize the situation, so we have a reason to expect experts’ forecasts to come true – the price will continue to rise up to $2,100 per troy ounce in 2022, implying a 15% increase from current levels.

Make sure to create a free demo account on LiteFinance! On LiteFinance, you will be up to date on interesting updates about Gold as an investment asset, and the user-friendly interface will come in handy if you decide to start trading Gold or any other asset. 

Disclaimer: When deciding on the execution of any transaction in the currency and gold markets, you should be aware of the high volatility (volatility) of prices in these markets. Late and emotional decisions to buy and sell any goods and assets, including gold and currencies, can lead to financial losses. Any information on this website is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to conduct transactions.

Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode