(Bloomberg) — Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast.Most Read from BloombergCentral banks aren’t giving up their inflation fight yet with the peak in interest rates still to come in most economies, but pauses will come at some point in 2023 — and perhaps even pivots.After spending 2022 hiking borrowing costs by the most in four decades to restrain the surging price pressures they helped fan and then failed to forecast, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde are among the international policymakers set to tighten further in the early months of this year.Of the 21 other jurisdictions monitored by Bloomberg, 10 of them are expected to increase rates, nine are projected to cut and two are seen on hold.That combination has Bloomberg Economics calculating its global gauge of rates will peak at 6% in the third quarter before ending 2023 at 5.8%. That would be the highest since 2001 and up from 5.2% at the start of the year.But it also points to central banks diverging after virtually all shifted rates up in 2022, albeit with the notable exceptions of Japan and China. The latter is predicted to lower borrowing costs again this year, along with Canada, Russia and Brazil.Decisions may become harder as rates move further into restrictive territory and risk constricting demand so much that economies topple into recessions. That’s the worry of bond traders who are increasingly skeptical of the ability of central banks to keep hiking and then hold tight.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“In 2022, with inflation high and rising, there was only one way for central banks to go and the biggest mistake investors could make was not factoring in enough hikes. In 2023, with inflation high but falling and recession looming, tradeoffs are starting to bite. Risks to the policy path are opening up below as well as above.”Story continues—Tom Orlik, chief economistHere is Bloomberg’s quarterly guide to 23 of the world’s top central banks, covering 90% of the world economy.GROUP OF SEVENU.S. Federal ReserveCurrent federal funds rate (upper bound): 4.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 4%Chair Powell and his colleagues are on track to extend the Fed’s most aggressive tightening cycle since the 1980s well into 2023.After lifting rates to 4.3% last month from near zero in March, they’ve forecast a peak of 5.1% this year with no rate cuts before 2024 to curb high inflation.Investors see at least a quarter-point increase when the central bank gathers Jan. 31-Feb. 1, with officials continuing at that pace for the next two meetings.Bets in futures markets also predict the Fed will cut rates before year end, but policymakers bridle at that suggestion.Minutes of their December meeting revealed concern over an “unwarranted” easing in financial conditions that amounted to an unusually blunt warning not to underestimate their will to keep rates high for some time.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“We expect concern over inflation will keep the Fed hiking rates until the upper bound reaches 5% by the end of the first quarter. With inflation expected to remain in the vicinity of high-3% level in 2023, the Fed will likely hold rates at that peak level throughout the year in order to keep real rates above in restrictive territory, even as a mild recession is likely to develop in late-2023.”—Anna WongEuropean Central BankThe ECB plans to continue to raise rates “significantly at a steady pace” this year and has flagged two more half-point hikes in the first quarter to wrest back control over inflation. Current projections show price pressures will likely stay above the 2% target through the end of 2025 — despite 250 basis points worth of tightening since last July.Policymakers have argued that a recession this winter won’t be strong enough to prompt a U-turn, and have announced plans to shrink their bond holdings. Between March and June, the ECB will allow an average of €15 billion ($15.8 billion) a month to roll off its balance sheet. The expiration of longer-term loans in the first half will remove another €670 billion from the financial system.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The surge in energy costs prompted by the war in Ukraine has wedged the ECB between soaring inflation and a weakening economy, but the hawks are in control. We expect the main policy rates to be raised by 50 bps in February and just the deposit rate to be hiked by 25 bps in March, before rapidly falling inflation allows the ECB to start easing by the end of the year. However, the risks are skewed toward more tightening and rates remaining higher for longer.”—David PowellBank of JapanCurrent policy-rate balance: -0.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: -0.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 0%Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is set to face intense market scrutiny in the final three months of his decade-long term, after shocking global financial markets last month. The base case is for Kuroda to now hold, but the governor has demonstrated anything is possible by abruptly widening the yield target band.Another highly anticipated event is the nomination of Kuroda’s successor by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. With his popularity hovering around record lows, the premier can’t afford to get this wrong. The nomination is likely to come by the end of February, and will give an idea of the BOJ’s policy path not only for 2023 but for the next five years.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Even a hawkish successor likely wouldn’t make any policy changes in 2023 more dramatic than removing a bias toward deeper easing from the BOJ’s forward guidance. The real liftoff will probably be in 2024 – we see the BOJ raising the mid-point target for the 10-year JGB yield from 0% to 0.25% in 1Q24 and exiting its negative short-term rate in 2Q24.”—Yuki MasujimaBank of EnglandThe Bank of England is still in hiking mode, but the pace of rate rises is likely to slow in the months ahead. After delivering the quickest monetary tightening in 33 years, the UK central bank is expected to drive its benchmark lending rate up another 75 basis points to 4.25% by the middle of this year. Investors who just a few weeks ago were certain February’s meeting would include a half-point hike are now signaling a smaller increase is possible.While inflation is lingering near a four-decade high, most forecasters say the economy is already in a recession that will be worse and longer than in any other G-7 nation. Concerns about how a cost-of-living squeeze is hitting consumers along with falling house prices and tumbling trade following Brexit are some of the headwinds making policymakers led by Governor Andrew Bailey hesitate to continue the sharp moves made in 2022.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The BOE’s job in 2022 was to get rates into restrictive territory quickly. The task this year is to keep them there for long enough to cool the labor market. We think that means rates rising to 4.25% by May and remaining there for the rest of the year. There would have to be a material downside inflation surprise for cuts to be considered within the next 12 months.”—Dan HansonBank of CanadaCurrent overnight lending rate: 4.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 4%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 2.75%The Bank of Canada has opened the door to pausing its hiking campaign, and markets are betting officials will make another 25-basis point increase to the benchmark overnight rate at the central bank’s January 25th decision before holding at 4.5%, below the Fed.Households in the northern nation have relatively high debt levels compared with many other developed countries, including the US — a big reason why Governor Tiff Macklem will be carefully weighing how consumers weather last year’s aggressive increases to borrowing costs.Canada’s economy is expected to gear down and enter a recession in the first half of 2023, with the central bank cutting rates by the end of the year, but sticky core inflation, a hot labor market, and better-than-expected growth figures are risks to further tightening in the near-term.BRICS CENTRAL BANKSPeople’s Bank of ChinaCurrent 1-year medium-term lending rate: 2.75%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 2.55%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 2.55%After easing monetary policy in 2022 to help bolster the economy, and with Covid still wreaking havoc on China’s growth, PBOC officials have signaled monetary stimulus in 2023 will be at least on par with last year. They face a potential window to cut rates in the first quarter, as soaring Covid infections curb consumer and business activity and keep inflation subdued, while the Fed is slowing its policy tightening.Inflation in China will likely pick up once the economy starts to rebound, which is expected to happen in the second quarter. That may drive the PBOC to scale back stimulus. The central bank is also under pressure to help the property market, which is in its worst slump in modern history, weighing on economic growth.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“For the PBOC, the central tension will be between supporting the economy through Covid reopening and the property slump, and avoiding a damaging slide in the yuan. BE’s view is that a 10-basis point rate cut in the first quarter of 2023 plus moves to free up funds for banks to lend will strike the right balance.”—David QuReserve Bank of IndiaCurrent RBI repurchase rate: 6.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 6.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 6.5%India’s policymakers are expected to wind down hikes after a 25-basis-point move this quarter, capping the most aggressive tightening cycle since 2011.The Reserve Bank of India delivered five straight increases to contain inflation that has hovered above the top end of a 2%-6% target for most of 2022. Price gains finally cooled below the ceiling of that range in November and are likely to keep easing, giving the RBI scope to slow, if not pause the tightening in the coming meetings.With the 6.25% benchmark rate near a four-year high, a member of RBI’s rate-setting panel said the level already poses a risk to growth in Asia’s third-largest economy.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The RBI is likely to vote 4-2 in favor of a hike in February. Elevated core-inflation and the ongoing recovery support one last 25-basis point move. Dissenting members will argue a quicker slowdown in headline inflation and risks to growth. We expect a unanimous vote to switch stance to neutral from accommodation withdrawal.”—Abhishek GuptaCentral Bank of BrazilCurrent Selic target rate: 13.75%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 11%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 8.5%Brazil’s central bank will likely hold its benchmark rate steady throughout the first quarter. While annual inflation has slowed by more than half since April and previous monetary tightening will crimp demand, policymakers led by Roberto Campos Neto are worried about growing public expenditures and an eventual increase in taxes.Those concerns prompted traders to scrap bets for rate cuts early this year, and most economists don’t see any easing until September. Indeed, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva took office on Jan. 1 after congress approved an additional 168 billion reais ($31 billion) to spend in 2023. Central bankers continue to warn that they won’t hesitate to resume tightening if inflation doesn’t slow as expected.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Lula has yet to clarify his proposals for two key areas that could shape the rate outlook. The first is how and at what speed he will balance the country’s budget — spiraling public debt could raise the neutral rate. The second is whether he intends to resume poorly targeted, strongly subsidized lending by state-owned banks that were a trademark of his previous stint as president, which would curb monetary policy’s efficiency. A rate hike seems unlikely with policy already very tight, but question marks on these issues adds an upside bias to our rate forecast.”—Adriana DupitaBank of RussiaThe Bank of Russia finds itself at a crossroads as elevated inflationary risks may require tighter monetary policy in 2023 while the economy, struggling amid sweeping sanctions, still needs more support from lower rates.Governor Elvira Nabiullina sent a neutral signal in December, stressing her concern Russia’s war in Ukraine may accelerate inflation as the Kremlin’s September mobilization order has worsened a labor shortage, diverting hundreds of thousands of workers to the front and sending others feeling the country.Recent data showing unemployment at a record low and real wages on the rise for the first time since March suggest the shortage of workers is intensifying, leaving the central bank less room to resume easing.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“In Russia inflation is moderate for now, but military mobilization and spiking public spending could lift it in months ahead. We estimate that the policy rate will remain on hold at 7.5% in February, but the Bank of Russia will have to hike by 50 basis points in March if the government backtracks on its commitment to the spending freeze.”—Alexander IsakovBank of Russia Halts the Easing CycleSouth African Reserve BankCurrent repo average rate: 7%Median economist forecast for end of 2023: 7.25%Median economist forecast for end of 2024: 6.38%South Africa’s central bank may slow the pace of rate hikes while prolonging its most aggressive tightening cycle in at least two decades.The Reserve Bank has front-loaded its fight against inflation, raising the key rate by 350 basis points since November 2021. Governor Lesetja Kganyago affirmed its commitment to taming the “monster of inflation” in November, when the MPC lifted borrowing costs by 75 basis points for third-straight meeting.Inflation is predicted to slow and the key rate is higher than the year-end 2025 level that the bank’s quarterly projection model — which the MPC uses as a guide — suggests it should be, fueling downshift predictions. Forward agreements used to speculate on borrowing costs show traders are fully pricing in a 25 basis-point hike in January, with a chance of a bigger half-point move.MINT CENTRAL BANKSBanco de MexicoCurrent overnight rate: 10.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 11%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 7%Banco de Mexico has signaled plans to raise the benchmark rate again at its next decision in February, affirming the record-breaking hiking cycle started in 2021 is not over. Local monetary policy has historically been influenced by the Fed, but Mexico’s central bankers have insisted they may not move in lockstep with their US counterpart.Persistent core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as fuel, remains a headache for board members led by Victoria Rodriguez Ceja. Local economists expect that price measure to rise around 5% this year, above the 3% inflation target. Policymakers are seen trimming rates to 10.25% by December, according to a survey by Citigroup Inc.’s local unit.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Persistent high inflation and rising US rates suggest Banxico will have to keep hiking early in 2023 and hold conditions tight through year-end, despite growth below potential and recession risk. BE sees two moves of 25 basis points each in February and March, with a terminal rate of 11%.”—Felipe HernandezBank IndonesiaCurrent 7-day reverse repo rate: 5.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 5.25%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 4.75%Indonesia’s central bank is likely to continue with smaller rate increases to shore up Asia’s worst-performing currency of the past quarter and rein in headline inflation that’s been above a 2%-4% target for more than half a year.Governor Perry Warjiyo promised last month that Bank Indonesia won’t raise rates excessively, saying that inflation is easing, and that he expects the rupiah to strengthen.That would give him the room to help protect the recovery of Southeast Asia’s biggest economy amid slowing global growth. Indonesia’s output is poised to reach $1.3 trillion. That almost matches Mexico, which is the 15th largest economy in the world.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“Bank Indonesia will likely end its rate hikes once the rupiah stabilizes – probably in the first quarter. But it’s hostage to the Fed and will have to keep raising rates, if the Fed keeps surprising markets with more tightening than what’s already priced in. Meantime, it will continue to use yield curve control and other measures to support the recovery.”—Tamara HendersonCentral Bank of TurkeyCurrent 1-week repo rate: 9%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 32.5%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 25%Turkey’s monetary policy in the first half of 2023 will be guided by elections in June. The central bank, led by Governor Sahap Kavcioglu, is almost certain to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy, and possibly deliver more rate cuts near the vote. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan — who had called for single-digit rates — has indicated he is content with current borrowing costs, after the central bank delivered four rounds of reductions despite inflation at over 80%.Erdogan will be accelerating public spending before the elections and attempt to support growth by providing cheap loans. Base effects mean that inflation started to decelerate the end of 2022, but it’s expected stay high for much of this year.What will happen with monetary policy after the election is unclear. Economists are nearly unanimous in calling for an urgent change in direction.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“In the lead-up to the elections, the central bank will rely on alternative tools and banking regulation as well as currency market interventions to tame the backlash on the lira and inflation. Post-vote, we see the build-up of risk in the economy calling for a policy reversal and a likely hike in the repo rate.”—Selva Bahar BazikiCentral Bank of NigeriaCurrent central bank rate: 16.5%Median economist forecast for end of 2023: 15.5%Median economist forecast for end of 2024: 14%Having lifted its benchmark rate by five percentage points since May, the central bank is expected to continue tightening at its next MPC meeting later this month.Inflation is running at its fastest pace in more than 17 years and is expected to remain elevated because of continued currency weakness and campaign spending ahead of Feb. 25 elections.MPC members reiterated in November, when they hiked by 1 percentage point, that they want to close the gap between inflation and the policy rate — currently at 500 basis points — to encourage investment, restore price stability and guard against the risk of a persistent upward shift in price-growth expectations.OTHER G-20 CENTRAL BANKSBank of KoreaAfter more than a year of hikes, the Bank of Korea is approaching the end of its tightening push as concerns mount about slowing growth. The central bank is likely to raise the benchmark by a quarter-percentage point when it meets on Jan. 13, but it may be the last increase of the cycle.Exports will weigh on the minds of policymakers for the remainder of 2023 as they consider how long to pause. The trade-reliant economy is expected to grow 1.7% this year, down from 2.6% in 2022. Exports are anticipated to fall for months to come, led by weaker semiconductor demand.Reserve Bank of AustraliaCurrent cash rate target: 3.1%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2023: 3%Bloomberg Economics forecast for end of 2024: 2%The RBA is nearing the end of its tightening cycle after cementing its position as one of the most dovish central banks in the developed world. It pivoted to smaller quarter percentage-point hikes in October and gave itself maximum flexibility to maneuver by saying future moves will be data-dependent. Economists are predicting two more quarter-point steps in 2023 to take the cash rate to 3.6%.Australia’s A$2.2 trillion ($1.5 trillion) economy has so far stomached the hikes without much pain, helped by solid consumer spending and strong business investment. Economists expect the country will dodge a recession, even with the housing market in a deep downturn and consumer sentiment in doldrums. A rebound in overseas migration, a strong labor market with unemployment near 50-year lows and still-high household savings are seen supporting the economy.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The RBA is very near the end of its hikes. We see it inching forward by a final 15 basis points in February to ensure inflation stays contained. We worry it may be over-tightening given signs that demand is already weakening. A lack of domestic inflation momentum should allow the RBA ease rates in late 2023-early 2024 as it shifts to support growth.”—James McIntyreCentral Bank of ArgentinaArgentina’s central bank, led by Miguel Pesce, has committed to a positive real rate, in line with a $44 billion agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Keeping that promise is no easy task with annual inflation running near 100%, and policy pledges under the IMF program have wavered in the past.Complicating the outlook further are prospects of financial-market volatility ahead of presidential elections in October. An ongoing drought affecting key commodity exports — an economic lifeline of hard currency that helps prevent sharp peso devaluations — will also have a heavy influence on how high borrowing costs may have to rise.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The policy rate appears insufficiently high to encourage investors and consumers to save in pesos. Still, the proximity of presidential election raises the risk of a premature rate cut this year. The pressure for a monetary policy adjustment should rise from 2024, especially when the country resumes payment on its renegotiated external debt.”—Adriana DupitaG-10 CURRENCIES AND EAST EUROPE ECONOMIESSwiss National BankPolicymakers led by President Thomas Jordan have already increased rates by 175 basis points in three moves and are expected to complete their hiking cycle with a final half-point step in March.After that, they are set to pause as inflation slows toward the SNB’s 2% ceiling by the end of the year.One reason for the country having the lowest consumer-price growth in the OECD is the SNB’s willingness to let the franc appreciate — though that policy comes at a cost. On Monday, the central bank warned the government that it’s likely to have a record loss for 2022, preventing its usual payout to the public finances.Sveriges RiksbankSweden’s Riksbank is set to slow the pace of rate hikes next month under its new governor, Erik Thedeen. With inflation near three-decade highs, policymakers are under pressure to deliver an increase of at least half a point to avoid the krona weakening after the ECB pledged to continue pushing rates higher.That hawkish message has spurred bets that the Riksbank will need to be more agressive than the quarter-point hikes it currently projects — despite a likely recession that may be one of the worst in Europe.Swedish policy is also harder to predict as two of six board members will set rates for the first time in February: Thedeen, the former head of the financial regulator, and new Deputy Governor Aino Bunge.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The Riksbank will continue with rate hikes in the first half of 2023 as preventing elevated inflation from becoming entrenched is its top policy priority. We see the central bank raising its policy rate to a peak rate of 3% by mid-year, with risks to the upside, and expect follow-up rate cuts to come no earlier than the second quarter of 2024.”—Selva Bahar BazikiNorges BankCurrent deposit rate: 2.75%Median economist forecast for end of 2023: 3%Median economist forecast for end of 2024: 2.5%Norway’s central bank is poised to deliver a quarter-point hike during the first quarter in what could be the last increase this cycle. Signs of a slowdown in the fossil-fuel rich economy are mounting, and inflation has weakened from a 35-year high.There is uncertainty about how well Norway will weather the effects of the global environment and policymakers forecast a mild recession for the mainland economy this year. With the latest data suggesting a stronger labor market than predicted, officials may still opt for a further rate hike later this year.Reserve Bank of New ZealandDespite being one of the first central banks to begin raising rates in 2021, the RBNZ accelerated its tightening late last year with an unprecedented 75 basis-point hike. Another jumbo move is possible at its next policy meeting in February. The bank expects to lift its cash rate to 5.5% this year from 4.25% currently, even as it forecasts a recession starting in the second quarter.So far, the economy has proved to be much stronger than expected which, combined with an extremely tight labor market, is fueling price pressures. Fourth-quarter inflation data due Jan. 25 will be closely watched – the RBNZ is projecting an acceleration in the annual rate to 7.5% from 7.2%, while most local bank economists see it slowing.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The RBNZ is likely to push ahead with its aggressive tightening in the first quarter, raising rates by another 50 basis points in February. Signs of slowing growth and surging labor supply will force them to stop there. The rapid return of foreign workers, post-pandemic, should put a lid on the wage inflation worrying the RBNZ.”—James McIntyreNational Bank of PolandThe Polish central bank effectively ended its year-long campaign of rate increases in October and has since kept borrowing costs stable at the highest level in a decade.Governor Adam Glapinski expects the economy to slip into a recession in the first quarter. Inflation, meanwhile, is forecast to flare up to almost 20% after some tax cuts expire. Yet the central bank is reluctant to raise rates further lest it would boost unemployment. Glapinski said last week he hopes rate cuts will start in late 2023.That might be a challenge: While inflation should start slowing gradually from the second quarter, it will likely remain above the central bank’s 2.5% target for an extended period.What Bloomberg Economics Says:“The NBP’s tightening and a drop in energy prices will see inflation peak and start to decelerate in the first quarter. We estimate the central bank will not need to increase the policy rate.”—Alexander IsakovBank of Poland Matched EM Peers’ PolicyCzech National BankThe Czech central bank is signaling that rates may have peaked at the highest level since 1999 after its new leadership halted aggressive monetary-policy tightening last summer.While inflation has far exceeded the 2% target, the board’s majority expects an economic slowdown to help bring price growth down to single digits around the middle of this year.Investors are betting on rate cuts in the second half of this year, although Governor Ales Michl has warned that more tightening may come if home-grown price-pressures increase.–With assistance from Prinesha Naidoo, Swati Pandey, Scott Johnson (Economist), Jana Randow, Piotr Skolimowski, Karthikeyan Sundaram, Yuko Takeo, Sarina Yoo, Ott Ummelas, Monique Vanek, Toru Fujioka, Kira Zavyalova, Beril Akman, Maya Averbuch, Clarissa Batino, Matthew Brockett, Alister Bull, Maria Eloisa Capurro, Myungshin Cho, Patrick Gillespie, Erik Hertzberg, Harumi Ichikura, Sam Kim, Reed Landberg, Yujing Liu and Matthew Malinowski.(Updates Swiss National Bank section with 2022 earnings. An earlier version corrected South Africa forecasts)Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek©2023 Bloomberg L.P.
Global Central Banks Aren’t Declaring Victory Over Inflation Yet
by admin | Jan 9, 2023 | Commodity | 0 comments