The Australian Bureau of Statistics will be publishing CPI data for the October – December quarter on Wednesday, 25 January 2023 at 11.30 am local time in Sydney:
- 0030 GMT on Wednesday, 25 January 2023
- 1930 US ET
I posted this yesterday:
Priors and expected:
Headline
For
the y/y,
Core
inflation : Trimmed
mean
-
expected 1.5% q/q, prior 1.8%
-
expected 6.5% y/y, prior 6.1%
Core
inflation:
Weighted
median
-
expected 1.4% q/q, prior 1.4%
-
expected 5.5% y/y, prior was 5.0%
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Preview comments in brief from Westpac:
The Trimmed Mean is forecast to lift 1.6% in December, a moderation from the 1.8% gain in September which we are forecasting to be the largest quarterly rise this cycle.
The annual pace for the Trimmed Mean is set to lift to 6.6%yr, from 6.1%yr in September, which again is our forecast peak in core inflation. We are forecasting core inflation to moderate to 3.4%yr by end 2023.
The key factors in our forecasts are:
- ongoing robust gains in food prices,
- rising fuel prices due to the increase in fuel excise,
- and a bounce back in holiday travel prices
As for the RBA, Westpac are forecasting a 25bp rate hike at the next meeting, February 7. And tipping further hikes ahead until a p[eak in May.
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Preview comments via Scotia:
Graph via Scotia’s preview: