Sage Investment Club

Australian CPI data for the December quarter (October – December) is due on Wednesday 23 January 2023 at 0030 GMT (0530 US ET):

  • This
    snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access
    it here
  • The
    times in the left-most column are GMT.
  • The
    numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous
    month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column
    next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median

Preview comments (in brief) via National Australia Bank:

  • CPI inflation is expected to have peaked in Q4 2022. Lower-than-expected fuel prices and lower-than-feared fruit and vegetable prices despite recent floods mean we now expect 1.6% q/q and a peak of 7.5% y/y, below the RBA’s 8.0% y/y November SoMP forecast. Despite that, we expect the detail to provide little comfort about the inflation backdrop with strong services inflation likely.
  • Looking forward, we expected inflation to slow through 2023 (particularly y/y).
  • But inflation is broad-based, and the tight labour market and accelerating labour costs and earnings remain. A second year of large electricity price increases is also expected in Q3 2023 CPI.
  • Although CPI is important, key for the RBA in being confident in getting inflation back to target will be wages growth with WPI on 22 February. We expect the RBA to hike rates by 25bp on 7 February and in March.

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