Market Update – February 9 – FedSpeak supports USD, but the Bard bombs
FEDSpeak – in virtual union about higher rates (along with Dimon “too early to declare victory vs. inflation”) – Fed Funds terminal rate now 5.122%. USDindex holds at 1-mth highs in flat FX markets, US10yr yield 3.653. Google’s AI the “Bard” bombed (got a wrong answer in a promo demo) – #Alphabet shares tanked -9% […]
Market Update – February 8 – Markets Mixed Following Powell
Trading Leveraged Products is risky Chair Powell’s comments – cancelled each other out – talked more “disinflation” with “significant declines in inflation.” in 2023 but the surprise 517k NFP he could not explain – adding to the 5-5.25% range argument. Fed Fund futures are now pricing the terminal rate at 5.15% in July. (up from […]
Market Update – February 7 – USD Holds on to Gains, Stocks Flat, Oil Rallies
Trading Leveraged Products is risky RBA raised rates as expected by 25bp & signaled more to come – AUD rallied, USD holds at recent 1-mth highs & Yields remain elevated too. US Stocks closed lower but Asian markets & European FUTS are higher. Google announced “Bard”, Baidu “Ernie Bot” and […]
Market Update – February 6 – USD & Yields higher, Yen, Stocks & Gold sink
A blockbuster NFP on Friday (571k new jobs vs 185k) & strong Services PMI (55.2 vs 50.5) has lifted the Dollar and Yields, sinking Stocks and Gold (the 3 mth Gold rally is over). YEN is weakest this morning with key “Dove” Amamiya (current deputy) a possible to take the […]
Market Update – February 3 – Freaky Friday???
“Assumed” CB Dovish Tone VS Big Tech Disappointment The ECB hiked rates and signaled another 50 bps in March, and more after that. The BoE also increased rates 50 bps but in a split 7-2 vote. A positive productivity report was good news for the Fed outlook, though jobless claims […]
Market Update – February 2 – A Continued Battle of Wills
Stocks surged, Yields dove sharply, and the US Dollar slumped on Wednesday and they are holding their gains/losses so far today as well. The FOMC delivered the 25bp rate hike as expected, reaching 4.75%, an eighth straight hike. The moderation & the lack of anything new or overly hawkish from Powell’s comments and his acknowledgement of progress in the fight against inflation opened the door […]
Market Update – February 1 – US100 Posts Best January Since 2001
Stocks and bonds corrected higher on Tuesday as the deceleration in ECI energized short covering and boosted risk appetite. Global Stock market finished solid. Earnings were mixed, but a lot of bad news has been digested, opening the door for bargain hunting. Treasury yields declined, led by the front end as […]
Market Update – January 31 -Stocks Lower; Techs Lead Drop
Global Stocks extend lower, USD steady and Yields picked up across the curve with the short end underperforming in a bear flattener given the Fed views. The curve flattened to -72 bps before unwinding to -70 bps. The looming FOMC decision on Wednesday and expectations for a hawkish trimming in […]
Market Update – January 30 – Mega Central banks, OPEC, NFP & Earnings week
Trading Leveraged Products is risky China Stock market returns from Luna New Year break. Chinese stocks rose while most other Asian equities fell as investors looked to interest rate decisions scheduled this week in the US, UK and Europe and busy earnings agenda. Nikkei ended at a more than 1-month high today. Global Stocks excluding […]
Market Update – January 27 – Strong US data = Soft Landing ?
The major US economic data yesterday (Q4 GDP lower; 3.9% from 4.2% but better than expected 3.6%, strong consumer spending, Durable goods, New Home Sales, Lower Inventories and Weekly Claims at new 22-mth lows) all added to the soft landing, disinflation, scenario for the US economy. A FOMC 25bp hike next […]