Risk of ‘wrathful Old Testament–style’ reaction from central banks is rising, JPMorgan says
The “gentle and forgiving path” taken by developed-market central banks to rein in inflation over the past year is likely to prove unsuccessful and trigger the need for more forceful, biblical-type action.That’s the view of economists Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton and Michael Hanson of JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, +1.10%, who described the response of […]
Strategist who loves challenging consensus sticks by call for 8% fed-funds rate
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, a former associate with the New York Fed and outlier from the rest of the financial-market pack, is standing by a bold call she made a year ago: She says the Federal Reserve needs to hike its benchmark interest rate to 8%, versus the current level of 4.5%-4.75%, to stabilize inflation and could […]
U.S. could be heading into period of ‘transitory disinflation,’ traders and strategists say
Hopes for a further decline in U.S. inflation this year are giving way to a risk seen in some corners of the financial market that any improvement in price gains will turn out to be fleeting.Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, +1.22% and BofA Securities, along with Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Asset Management, […]
Oil futures get lift on China demand hopes
Oil futures rose Tuesday, finding support as ongoing hopes a revival in crude demand from China run strong. A devastating earthquake that left thousands dead in Turkey and Syria and Turkey’s Ceyhan oil export terminal, with a capacity of 1 million barrels a day, was expected to be closed through Wednesday, Reuters reported. See: How […]
Gold prices rebound after hitting 3-week low
Gold prices rebounded on Monday after tumbling to their lowest level in three weeks following Friday’s surprisingly strong jobs report, which helped send Treasury yields and the dollar higher to the detriment of the yellow metal. Price action Gold for April delivery GC00, +0.47% GCJ23, +0.47% rose $9.50, or 0.5%, to settle at $1,885 an […]
Why the 2023 stock market rally may depend on further U.S. dollar weakness
The U.S. dollar may be losing its appeal as one of the few reliable safe-haven assets in times of economic and geopolitical uncertainty after an 18 month rally, but a further fall by the currency could fuel a 2023 stock-market rally, market analysts said.The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, +1.22% fell to a nine-month low […]
Oil pulls back from recent gains, but traders remain optimistic on China demand
Oil futures edged lower on Tuesday, easing back after recent gains but underpinned by continued optimism over the demand outlook from China after the country dropped COVID restrictions. Natural-gas futures moved lower after posting a gain of more than 6% a day earlier on forecasts for colder U.S. weather. Price action West Texas Intermediate crude […]
Morgan Stanley cuts U.S. dollar forecasts lower
The U.S. dollar is going to drop further, Morgan Stanley strategists said over the weekend as they became more optimistic about the global economy. They now see the DXY dollar index DXY, +0.20% ending the year at 98, from a previous forecast of 104. They see the euro EURUSD, -0.19% climbing to $1.15, vs. a […]
As U.S. dollar stumbles, Japanese yen is ‘hottest story in town’. Here’s why.
It’s the comeback currency. The Japanese yen, among the world’s worst-performing major currencies in 2022, roared back to a seven-month high versus a now-reeling U.S. dollar on Friday, as traders bet the Bank of Japan will finally join other major central banks in tightening monetary policy. A December reading Thursday on U.S. inflation that was […]
Investors are ‘desperate’ for a recession that forces the Fed to pivot but what happens to markets if the economy remains healthy this year ?
As 2023 gets underway markets are clinging to expectations that the U.S. economy will slide into a recession that effectively forces the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates, lower bond yields and borrowing costs, and perhaps help stock market valuations. U.S. economic data released over the past few months show that inflation has moderated, […]