Correction weaker before a trend stronger – MUFG
GBP gained further in January, mainly versus USD. Economists at MUFG Bank believe that the Pound could struggle in the near term before a sustained appreciation trend emerges. Global risk a key support for GBP “The sharp decline in natural gas prices and the continued reopening of China have helped lift global growth expectations and […]
Room for the South African Rand to play catch up with ongoing rally in EM FX – MUFG
Analysts at MUFG Bank see the USD/ZAR moving to the downside over the next days. They point out the South African Rand has failed to strengthen alongside other Emerging Market currencies on the back of building optimism over a dovish Federal Reserve policy pivot and China’s economy reopening more fully this year. Key quotes: “The […]
Still room to rise toward the 1.0500 area – MUFG
The EUR/CHF pair has climbed back above parity over the past week after bouncing off support for the 200-day moving average at around 0.9930, explained analysts at MUFG Bank. They see that price action supports their view that there is still room for the cross to rise back towards the levels that were in place […]
MUFG – bullish EUR, expecting +50bp ECB February rate hike, and most likely in March too
I posted earlier from MUFG: More from analysts at the bank, European Central Bank preview: We expect the ECB to deliver another 50bps hike at next week’s policy meeting and continue to signal that at least one more larger 50bps hike is likely at the March policy meeting. We only expect a slowdown in the […]
An explicit signal of a pause will weaken CAD – MUFG
Later today, we have the Bank of Canada policy meeting. Economists at MUFG Bank do not expect a big reaction on the CAD unless the BoC explicitly signals a pause. Approaching terminal rate? “While we believe there is a good chance today’s 25 bps hike could be the last, we are less sure that the […]
ECB and Fed policies to diverge, lifting the Euro – MUFG
Near-term ECB policy outlook has been the driver of EUR volatility this week. A diverging monetary plicy between Fed and ECB is set to boost the Euro, according to economists at MUFG Bank. ECB policy rate to reach 3.00% by the end of this quarter “We are sticking with our forecast for the policy rate […]
Levels below 120.00 are plausible for later this year – MUFG
According to analysts at MUFG Bank, the Japanese Yen is set to gain further ground on the back of monetary policy expectations from the Bank of Japan. They consider possible a slide under 120.00 for later in 2023. Key quotes: “USD/JPY has fallen further still today and is now 15.5% down from the peak on […]
MUFG thinks the EUR/CHF breakout has room to run
Go with the break is the message from MUFG Research’s first trade of the week for 2023. They suggest buying EUR/CHF from spot (reference 1.0045) with a target of 1.0470 and a stop at 0.9830. “We are recommending a new long EUR/CHF trade idea. Given the CHF’s role as a regional safe haven currency, the […]
Room for the Euro to extend the move higher – MUFG
Analysts at MUFG Bank have a bullish outlook for the EUR/CHF cross, considering it could benefit from a further scaling back of fears over recession in the Eurozone. Key quotes: “After trading within a narrow range between 0.9800 and 0.9950 throughout most of Q4, the pair has broken higher in recent days as it first […]
Positive developments for the Pound, more of this as the year unfolds– MUFG
In the view of economists at MUFG Bank, we may have reached “peak pessimism” for the UK and the Pound. Therefore, the outlook in 2023 is somewhat brighter. Positive developments emerging “Much greater political stability this year than last is one factor here and we can very likely assume that PM Sunak will bring greater […]