Investors are ‘desperate’ for a recession that forces the Fed to pivot but what happens to markets if the economy remains healthy this year ?
As 2023 gets underway markets are clinging to expectations that the U.S. economy will slide into a recession that effectively forces the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates, lower bond yields and borrowing costs, and perhaps help stock market valuations. U.S. economic data released over the past few months show that inflation has moderated, […]
The Fed has won its ‘war’ against inflation, says JPMorgan analyst. And now it needs to stop hiking interest rates.
“‘This is a war that [the Federal Reserve has] won, and now they are in danger of tipping the economy into recession and making the fiscal problem worse, so I wish they would be done.’” — David Kelly, JPMorgan Chase & Co. A top global markets strategist for JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset-management business said […]
How the Fed is ‘collapsing’ real estate activity with higher interest rates
U.S. real estate has undergone a dramatic slowdown in transaction activity in the months since the Federal Reserve began jacking up interest rates. Sales of existing homes plunged from peak pandemic levels to about 4.1 million in November (see chart) from over 6 million units sold per year in 2021 as the Fed has dramatically […]
Treasury yields firmer amid hawkish Fed chatter and looming CPI data
Bond yields rose as markets continued to absorb another bout of hawkish Fed commentary.What’s happening The yield on the 2-year Treasury TMUBMUSD02Y, 4.245% rose 2.1 basis points to 4.237%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices. The yield on the 10-year Treasury TMUBMUSD10Y, 3.568% rose 1.1 basis points to 3.550%. The yield on the […]
Is the Fed Trying to Wean Markets Off Monetary Policy?
Commentary Is the Fed trying to wean the markets off monetary policy? Such was an interesting premise from former British diplomat Alastair Crooke via the Strategic Culture Foundation, to wit: “The Fed however, may be attempting to implement a contrarian, controlled demolition of the U.S. bubble-economy through interest rate increases. The rate rises will not slay […]
‘Markets are going to get rocked’ as Fed is likely to push rates higher, economist warns
The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates more than the markets now expect, says Ricardo Reis, an economist at the London School of Economics. “Markets are going to get rocked,” Reis told MarketWatch on the sidelines of the American Economic Association annual meeting in New Orleans. “All the risks are on the upside. […]
Fed’s Bullard says 2023 on track to be a ‘disinflationary year’
High U.S. inflation is likely to recede in 2023 thanks to aggressive Federal Reserve efforts to raise interest rates and cool off the economy, a senior central bank official said. James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, said higher rates should help curb inflation by slowing the economy and reducing the demand for […]
The Fed delivered a message to the stock market: Big rallies will prolong pain
It was a “don’t make me come back there” moment from the Federal Reserve.A line from the minutes of the central bank’s December policy meeting released Wednesday afternoon was taken by analysts and economists as a warning to financial market participants that bets on a policy pivot in 2023 aren’t welcome. And, to the extent […]
Fed’s Kashkari backs interest rate hikes ‘at least the next few meetings’
The Federal Reserve should keep raising its policy interest rate until it is confident inflation has peaked and that means interest rate hikes “at least at the next few meetings,” said Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Wednesday. In an essay published on his regional bank’s website, Kashkari said that he has projected that the […]